What the auto sector opportunities?

Source: Snowball

Great Wall Fuyao Flying dissolution

Baotuan shares in continued, began eyeing funds are currently a number of other sectors, sectors that period recently a choice, and in the cycle section, the automobile industry chain these days can be very crazy.

Wall breakthrough soared straight record high, the current market value once again exceeded 170 billion from 200 billion has been getting closer, the other side of Fuyao also continue to break new highs, PE to 37 times.

chain of automobile industry these days about the outbreak in September, with sales of about, according to data by the Federation, the second week of September, car sales grew by 39%, increased dramatically.

In this stimulation is not surprising that naturally increase.

on the Great Wall and Fuyao I devoted much of the article, especially the Great Wall, because the judge reversed the vehicle sector did so easily, before a lot of people in the background told me optimistic Chang’an, the results of this ran out of the Great Wall is found rolling level of performance.

The Great Wall is more to talk about when I talk to cyclical stocks when it comes to vehicle sector will say a few words with you,

This is the talk before pork and building materials to passing the time talking to the Great Wall.

Fuyao’d talked specifically mentioned in the automobile industry chain when, as compared to the vehicle, logical and easy to judge the competition a lot of auto parts, in May, when I have specifically said Fuyao Glass – – “how to firmly seize the opportunity automobile industry chain”, the result after that Fuyao on the crazy boom. . .

You never know what crazy market up, what will be.



rise from the current point of view, the Great Wall today after a wave of soaring again, the market capitalization of over 170 billion, while Fuyao directly to to 38PE, of course, Fuyao part because the affected vehicle cycle, in accordance with the peak period before actual profits to calculate PE is about 21, but it looks like not high for this glass is already considered a leader in terms of overvalued stage. Fuyao, then the valuation

18-year peak phase will 23PE, and at that time it happens to be the pinnacle of Fuyao’s earnings in recent years.

Therefore, the current valuation Fuyao, apparently into the foam area.

Great Wall here, under normal circumstances, I will predict the market value of its 200 billion, the optimistic case can go to but that was a few years later things 300 billion or more.

For the Great Wall, the current outbreak is likely to be a common industry cycle superimposed car period, and 300 billion relative to the previous peak in terms of market capitalization also doubled, so more down is almost next round of summit the market value.

Therefore, the current Great Wall of A shares can be said to overdraft a lot of future possibilities, and not the performance or in the case of cash, so we currently do not recommend intervention, if it is optimistic about the Great Wall and has Configuring a good friend, I recommend switching to Hong Kong stocks, a shares of speculation atmosphere here, more intense, more like looking at funding Huangbuzelu can hold together a variety.

The current depression

If we say that we still want to find varieties of depression in the automotive sector where, it is still possible to see more of it tires, tires currently leading exquisite 19PE or less, and the space of the tire industry is much larger than glass, because the domestic leader also continue to erode the share of overseas giants, and the glass industry has Fuyao is the only file exists.

Linglong tire sales accounted currently in the country is still only 7.02%, and the rhythm of overseas expansion remains good, the future benefit from the vehicle cycle reversal, the performance will be high probability further enhanced.

associated logic can be seen in this article, “a low-key but highly potential sector”

Of course, there are some risks automotive sector is not fully determined, a current reversal what is still lagging demand leads to really rock bottom reversal also open to question, if the former, then immediately touted the auto sector, the risk in the short term actually improve a lot, especially the automobile industry.

and once inverted logic is falsified, even if it is undervalued relative to the tire industry, a wave of valuation may be killed, but the long-term logic of the tire sector would be very fluent.

Therefore, Current want to configure the auto sector friends, we must do bearMore than 30% retracement of the psychological preparation , otherwise I suggest not touch this section, or you hold on a large probability. After


1. The Automotive sector draws a lot of attention, most affected by natural or before pushing into madness varieties, today Maotai liquor section also barely, fell 3.16 percent, sauce and medicine Mao Mao also fell together. For these leading, the current decline is just beginning, and there are a lot of decline in space.

On the other hand, creationism late rebound today, and looked at the basic or tail stocks pile up, those few basic varieties head up, indicating that those funds or repeated speculation in the tail variety cheat guns, we continue to carefully do not be fooled into good.

2. Hang Seng AH Premium Index came to a historical high, but recently I do not intend to adjust the position of Hong Kong calf jogging in the broader market, since the Hong Kong market after adjustments accounted for the financial sector is down and Internet sector increases, so do the equivalent of the price-performance of a hedge.

However, if you are a stock holder, the banking, insurance, infrastructure and even the miserable (such as Vanke), the current switch to the Hong Kong there is a very good choice.

Other highway sector is still worthy of our attention next, particularly in low-risk species like friends. such as Shenzhen Expressway, Hong Kong discount is very exaggerated, in the case of subsequent recovery of the charges, their performance should be the restoration of the winning numbers.

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