Source: Investment Express
Editor’s note: Recently, Auto stocks rose sharply against the market trend, become the biggest highlight of the market. Analysts believe that the Automotive industry Is currently in a bottoming phase of thIs cycle, the industry Is expected to achieve a significant reversal in the second quarter, it Is expected to bottom out, passenger vehicle configuration usher in the window period.
Car sales to pick up shares staged daily limit tide
Auto stocks rose sharply against the market trend, to become A shares April 11 May the biggest bright spot. The Automotive sector has Dongfeng Motor, FAW Car, Dongan and other strong limit, Foton Motor, Steyr, bus pass and so rose sharply. From the industry fundamentals look dynamic, March domestic Car sales continued to fall, showing the chain greatly increased 48.2%. Meanwhile, luxury Car sales continued to rIse, the strong performance of new energy vehicles. In the first quarter, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 137,000, especially the “blowout” in March, to achieve “good start”, sold 111,000 units.
In fact, the Auto industry since July 2019 has appeared for nine consecutive months, sales fell year on year. By the Federation to the latest data show that in March thIs year, passenger Car sales fell 12.1% year on year, the decline has narrowed, and ring up 48 percent over sales in February. In addition to pay high insurance data in March fell 10%, better than market expectations. April 1 – 4 days, the average daily passenger Car retail sales growth of 8% in April passenger Car sales accelerate signs of improvement. New energy vehicles continue to be strong growth in the first quarter, total sales of 254,000, an increase of 117.8%.
Guosheng Securities believes that the Automotive industry Is currently in a bottoming phase of thIs cycle, the industry Is expected to achieve a significant reversal in the second quarter, it Is expected to bottom out, ushered in passenger vehicle configuration window period. In the long term, the domestic Auto market Will maintain an average annual growth rate of 3% -5%, 2020–2021-year period Is expected to achieve annual sales growth of 5% -6%. Accelerate the industry reshuffle, market concentration further improved, in addition to profitability indicators, the current moment Is recommended more attention to sales and market share targets.
When the worst Is the best time to
“The worst time Is the best time,” you can use these words to describe the current Auto sector. The Automotive industry since the beginning of May 2019 by the end demand weakening influence downturn thIs year, US Auto sales market suffered its first negative growth in 28 years. However, thIs year, Auto stocks began to gradually active, Jiangling Motors and other leading stocks range or significant. So, in addition to the expected reversal industry, Automotive sector What investment logic?
logical investment for industry, research and development Huaxin Securities analyst Yang Jinglei said that the future of the Automotive industry Will continue to intensify competition, technology, capital, research and development, brand and other comprehensive advantages have only leading enterprIses have the ability to continue to benefit from structural opportunities Will be a long-term focus.
In the configuration strategy, U.S. Merchants Securities industry study said that based on a forward-looking quarterly data, go screened stocks from the following four main lines. A main line: the first quarter Is expected to achieve high growth stocks; the main two: good texture, the valuation of large repair space, long-term investors can gradually layout flexibility varieties; the main line three: infrastructure, real estate investment pick up, heavy truck boom of the first half without Yu, recommended the heavy truck industry chain; the main line four: the depth of the layout of the smart electric vehicles.
Yang Jinglei said that from the long-term value point of view, proposes a focus with the leading edge in the field of joint ventures and independent vehicle and parts enterprIses. In the U.S. Automotive sector, along with the United States Tesla factory floor, its local supply chain Will usher in structural opportunities. Tesla localization for its exIsting suppliers means that orders are expected to increase elasticity, and for potential suppliers, it means that the increment Is expected to get new orders. Meanwhile, with the intelligent vehicles, motorized steadily, with OEMs Tier1 (a supplier) resources and technological advantages of Automotive electronic products Is expected to become the leading intelligent driving floor entrance, enjoy smart driving the rapid growth of dividends.
sent to the market share of leading enterprIses focus
With the adjustment of the Automotive industry, more and more market share to the leading enterprIses concentrated. In 2019, overall Automobile market downward background, SAIC still achieved sales of 7.05 million, an increase of 1.8%.The annual revenue of 887.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.62%; net profit of 36 billion yuan, an increase of 4.65%. SAIC also the overall development in the new energy field, in 2019 annual sales of various types of new energy vehicles 142,000, an increase of 120%.
SAIC dividend payout ratio since 2013 are maintained at above 50%, in 2019 by the downturn affecting the industry decline, but still as high as 41%, to be sent for every 10 shares 12.6 yuan to 28.98 yuan yesterday’s closing price to calculate dividend yield 4.35%, far higher than the 1-year deposit rate. Good performance and high cash dividends, attracted the favor of many institutional investors. According to the annual report, as of the end of 2019 a total of 556 institutions hold shares of SAIC, which holds gold certificates 350 million shares, Huijin holds more than 100 million shares. North funds are held by SAIC market value of over a hundred billion, ten billion market value of shares of funds for the north of one of the few stocks. In addition to SAIC to maintain positive growth, the New York Automobile Group, Great Wall Motor 2019 net profit were up 1.08%, 3.58%, Hong Kong Geely Automobile net profit growth of 18.05%. In the context of the overall market downturn, leading Car companies to maintain steady performance.
According to the company announcement, in March thIs year, sales growth Is part of the lIsted Car prices have started to recover. Great Wall Motor Yinha Fu series pickup sales and rapid growth, a quarter of total sales rose 10.61 percent, while the growth has accelerated in March reached 16.82%; the first quarter export growth Is as high as 20.28 percent, the growth rate in March also raIsed to 28.48%.
the three main layout Auto sector
strong sales data so generous northward rush to raIse funds in the market adjustment in the context of three consecutive trading days Opening the Great Wall Automobile Co., its position since April 1 2197 million shares, just six trading days Masukura more than 52% to 3340 million shares. Great Wall Motor share price has also been a new high, or nearly doubled thIs year. In addition, BYD new energy passenger Cars to maintain a rapid growth, overall sales rose 8.48%; Geely Automobile sales grew 3%.
A shares Automobile industryAverage 1.33 times book value, there Is a strong valuation of repair needs to hIstoric lows, the Automotive industry. In addition to the top ten Awkwardness fund asset allocation, for example, the Automotive industry fund positions overall downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2019, the fund has been the Automotive industry positions to a record low of around 1.8%, with strong Margin requirements.
macro level, starting April 1 due to the manufacturing value-added tax rate by 3 percentage points downward adjustment, the terminal price of imported high-end brands with varying degrees down. Insiders said that to improve the domestic financial environment, infrastructure investment Is expected to heat and other factors conducive to the development of the Automobile market, starting April 1 officially implemented the VAT reduction policy Will greatly promote the development of the Automotive industry.
U.S. Merchants Securities recommended to sift through stocks from the three main lines: (1) industry leading blue chip stocks: SAIC, Weichai Power, New York Automobile Group, Yutong Bus, Great Wall Motor. (2) electric sector and smart driving plate: BYD, Dow technology shares in the tripod, all-electronic. (3) mixed state-owned enterprIses reform: FAW Fuwei, FAW Car.
CITIC Securities, said the Auto sector since the early gains after home, has a high price at the plate configuration gradually easing liquidity, economic stabilization and improvement in expectations. Auto industry sales growth Is expected in the second half expected to positive, we can focus on three main lines: one to benefit from the rapid development of electric and intelligent, has continued to grow space parts sector; the second Is to benefit from the retail and pick up positive potential used Car policy released dealer plates; the third Is healthy inventory of the vehicle leading shares.
FAW Car (000800)
April 11 evening, FAW Car announced that the FAW to have all assets and liabilities other than finance companies, insurance and equity Xin assets as part of the reservation set out the assets, shares and FAW after the implementation of part of the assets held by FAW equivalent adjustment portion 100% stake in the replacement. The difference, to Issue shares and convertible bonds to pay for the cash to make a purchase FAW shares by the company. Meanwhile, the company intends to raIse supportfunds. After the transaction, the lIsted company’s main business Will change to commercial development, manufacturing and sales.
Publicly available data, in 2019 FAW total sales reached 331,600, in the heavy truck market share of more than 20%; from 2016 to 2019 for three consecutive years the United States truck heavy truck sales champion; 2020 January-February, FAW cumulative sales of close to 60,000, in the heavy truck industry sales volume ranked first. According to future plans, FAW to be achieved in 2020 sales of 35 million units, sales in 2023 amounted to 430 000, 500 000 2025 sales of strategic objectives. FAW Group, FAW Is truly good assets. Incorporated in the liberation of FAW, FAW Car Will also make a public company owned commercial vehicle production qualification, 2019, FAW profit of over 2.1 billion yuan, Is expected to improve profitability FAW Car.
April 9 evening, SAIC announced sales 2020 March Happening. According to data released by SAIC, March Group sold 558,600 Cars, compared with 649,500 a year earlier total sales fell 14 percent, a decline has slowed. So far SAIC sales in the first quarter of 2020 have all been released, SAIC sold a total of 1,533,000 vehicles in the first quarter, sales volume last year was 1.8224 million, up nearly 16%.
analysIs, data from a single point of view the first quarter of 2020, SAIC’s sales performance Is difficult to make investors happy, but if you take into account the stability of the company’s 2019 sales performance, SAIC then hand over the first quarter of 2020. the sales report was in fact people can accept. So investors need not be too dIsappointed with the sales of SAIC temporary difficulties encountered, leading effect SAIC still evident.
in the first quarter of 2020, in addition to “Iveco commercial vehicles” affiliate sales year on year growth, sales of other subsidiaries are different degrees of decline. “New York Volkswagen”, “SAIC”, “SAIC-GM-Wuling” SAIC Is the largest sales accounted for threeBackbone of the company, sales in a single quarter were 467,900, 426,900 and 429,000, respectively, down 8.8 percent year on year, 13.1% and 25.4%, of which “SAIC-GM-Wuling,” the decline in sales Is the most serious, fell by more than 25%.
Dongfeng Motor (600006)
Dongfeng Motor recently dIsclosed report, the company in 2019 operating income of 144.21 billion yuan, down 21.20 percent year on year; attributable to shareholders of lIsted companies net profit of 554 million yuan(CNY)(CNY), an increase of 175.95%. Basic earnings per share of 0.28 yuan. The company intends to send 10 0.83 yuan.
It Is understood that, with the “163 doubling plan” in an orderly way, in order to deepen the reform of Dongfeng Automobile Co., Ltd. as the source of power, ushered in production and management continues to improve.
The company’s latest marketing Newsletter shows: March, Dongfeng Motor vehicle sales achieved 19,563, an increase of 31%; from January to March, total Car sales achieved 38,268, an increase of 20%. According to reports, Dongfeng light truck sales achieved in March 17654, an increase of 32%; January-March sales 34,156, an increase of 32%. Among them, the main vehicle sales are to achieve success, Dongfeng Huancavelica March sales 10705; Dongfeng way Yat March 1350 sales; Dongfeng FYC 2371 sales are up more than 49%.
It Is reported that Dongfeng Motor Will continue to promote customer-focused quality improvement activities to promote the joint development center construction, T17, establIshed to improve the universal through the platform of a new generation of strategy by actively into the light truck to achieve the level of quality to reach the domestic light commercial vehicles first.